Seeking a Third Path to Victory
Independent candidates are making their presence felt.
Third-party candidates may have an impact on Tuesday's midterm elections – and on who controls the Senate.
Who controls the Senate next year may depend on an unusual cast of characters. There’s a pizza delivery guy in North Carolina, a tea party hopeful in Louisiana, an independent in Kansas so determined to live up to the moniker he won’t say whom he wants as Senate majority leader, a smattering of libertarians and a former GOP senator who wants his old job back.
Most of them will not get more than a small percentage of the vote, as has historically happened with third-party (or just third) candidates. But in a year where so many races have razor-thin margins and every vote counts, the contenders may have an outsized impact. They may propel one of the main party candidates to an otherwise improbable win; or they may delay the results in key individual contests, leaving undecided which party will run the Senate for months.
“It’s very rare for a third-party candidate to win,” says Jeffrey Koch, a political science professor at State University of New York–Geneseo. Instead, such contenders hit a nerve in part of the electorate, either by promoting a particular issue (government overreach, for example, among libertarians, or the environment among Green Party members), or by providing an outlet for disgust with the two major parties, Koch explains. “Usually they tend to energize [the voters] more when there is … a disgruntlement,” he says.
Energizing is one thing. But what if a voter chooses a “spoiler” who ends up knocking out the next most appealing candidate, thereby securing the elected office for one’s last choice? Florida liberals learned that lesson the hardest of ways in 2000, when Green Party candidate and longtime consumer advocate Ralph Nader got 97,421 votes statewide. That was far more than the 537 votes by which George W. Bush beat Al Gore, making Democrats complain that the “spoilers” were responsible for making Bush president (since Gore, who won the national popular vote, would have been president had he taken Florida).
In most of the contested races, it is the Republican who will likely see some votes siphoned off (though the GOP is favored to win in key races and favored to take back the Senate). But “this is not an issue of just the Republicans being split” among establishment, libertarian and social conservative factions, says Steven Greene, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina. “This is just dissatisfaction, people being unhappy with their choices.”
States where a third-party (or just a third) candidate could affect the outcome of elections include:
Kansas
Independent Senate candidate Greg Orman, left, and GOP Sen. Pat Roberts.
The Sunflower State wasn’t even on the campaign committees’ radar screens after sitting GOP Sen. Pat Roberts won an unexpectedly tough primary. The state is deep red, and Democrats were not expected to play there at all. And they really weren’t. Instead, an independent candidate named Greg Orman began to surge in the polls, and Democrats saw an opening. They convinced their own candidate, Chad Taylor, to drop out, turning the race into what is now a dead heat between Roberts and Orman. Depending on which party Orman caucuses with if he’s elected, the majority may not be identified until next year if Senate control comes down to Kansas.
North Carolina
From left: Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, Libertarian Senate candidate Sean Haugh and Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis.
Sitting Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan probably benefits the most from the Libertarian Party candidacy of Sean Haugh, a pizza deliveryman who is polling in the high single digits. Hagan and GOP nominee Thom Tillis are running closely against each other (with Hagan ahead by tiny margins), and Haugh’s anti-big government appeal could peel votes from Tillis and deprive the GOP of a pickup.
Still, “in North Carolina statewide races, Libertarian candidates often poll in the high single digits in mid-campaign polls, only to fall to around 2 to 3 percent support in the actual election, and we are likely to see the same pattern in this year’s Senate race,” says Wake Forest University political science professor John Dinan. So Haugh’s influence is likely to wane somewhat on Election Day.
Georgia
From left: Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford, Republican David Purdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn.
Two races – the open Senate seat and the governor’s race – might end up in runoffs in the Peach State, since statewide candidates there are required to get 50 percent of the vote. Georgia is seen as one of two opportunities (if not the only) Democrats have for a Senate pickup, with Michelle Nunn now ahead (though by statistically insignificant margins) of Republican David Perdue. Libertarian Amanda Swafford is polling in the low single digits, which could send the contest to a runoff Jan. 6 – after the Senate is seated. And in the governor’s race, GOP incumbent Nathan Deal is neck-and-neck with his Democratic challenger, Jason Carter, with neither man polling above 50 percent. Libertarian Andrew Hunt is also in the low single digits.
Louisiana
From left: GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy, Republican Senate candidate Rob Maness and Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu.
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is furiously trying to get past the 50 percent mark in the elections, and if she succeeds, it will be in part because of the presence of a second Republican, Rob Maness, who is aligned with the tea party and who has joined Landrieu in attacking (for different reasons) the leading GOP candidate, Rep. Bill Cassidy.
The Bayou State’s open primary allows all contenders to compete in November; if no one gets 50 percent of the vote, it goes to a December runoff. Since Maness votes are more likely to go to Cassidy, Landrieu is eager to win outright. “If she can’t get a majority in November, how is she going to get a majority in December” against just one Republican? asks Brian Brox, a political science professor at Tulane University.
South Dakota
From left: Independent Senate candidate Larry Pressler, GOP candidate Mike Rounds and Democratic candidate Rick Weiland.
The open Senate seat was considered an automatic giveaway to Republicans, since a Democratic incumbent is retiring in a very red state. But former GOP Sen. Larry Pressler’s independent run has been picking up steam, and he’s only slightly behind Republican Mike Rounds. Democrat Rick Weiland isn’t far behind Pressler.
Maine
From left: Independent Maine gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler, Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud.
Sitting GOP Gov. Paul LePage was headed for defeat against Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud, but independent Eliot Cutler is drawing in the low double digits and may deliver a re-election victory to LePage.
Alaska
Republican Dan Sullivan is slightly ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich in polls, and Libertarian candidate Mark Fish could pull some votes from Sullivan. Alaska is notoriously hard to poll, so Fish’s impact is unclear. Begich said before he left Washington for the recess that he expected the votes could take a week to count, so Alaska’s results, too, might delay resolving the question of which party will control the Senate.
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