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The 2014 Global Terrorism Index results map shows how 162 countries of the world rank according to the impact of terrorism. — Courtesy visionofhumanity.org
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WHEN planning counterterrorism strategies, it always helps to have credible data handy in order to analyse the nature of the threats.
In this regard, the Global Terrorism Index 2014, compiled by the international research group the Institute for Economics and Peace, offers some important insights into the effects of terrorism on the global community.
For Pakistan, there are some crucial indicators in the study that can help shape policy and create a more robust counterterrorism response.
Of course, the most sobering finding is that Pakistan stands third in the table of countries that have suffered from terrorism, behind Iraq and Afghanistan. The report says that in 2013, there were a total of 1,933 incidents of terrorism in this country taking a bloody toll: there were 2,345 fatalities while 5,035 people were injured.
This is a 37pc jump in the number of deaths and 28pc increase in the number of injured compared to 2012. Last year, the banned TTP was by far the single most lethal militant group, responsible for nearly half of all claimed attacks.
However, as worrying as these figures are, there has been one development this year that has changed the scenario considerably: the launching of the Zarb-i-Azb military operation in North Waziristan in June.
Militant attacks had begun to decline even before the operation was initiated, especially when the government was seeking a negotiated settlement with the TTP. Yet the operation itself has had a significant impact in bringing down attacks and destroying militant infrastructure in North Waziristan.
Though concrete figures are not yet available, some counterterrorism experts estimate that attacks have come down by around 30pc this year compared to 2013. However, as important as uprooting the TTP from its base is, terrorism in Pakistan will not be eliminated by focusing on North Waziristan alone.
For while the TTP may be in disarray — with internal splits and leaders on the run — the group is not the only significant militant threat in Pakistan. As per the report on global terrorism, after the TTP, Lashkar-i-Jhangvi is the most lethal militant group of those that claim attacks inside the country. And there is little evidence that the LJ’s infrastructure is being dismantled in Balochistan or Karachi.
As this paper has often argued, there needs to be a holistic counterterrorism effort. While the TTP is in the state’s cross hairs, all other groups that share its violent ideology and tactics must also be tackled.
While action on the battlefield is important, intelligence-led policing is required to disrupt militant activity in cities and towns where targeted killings and other forms of violence continues.
On this front, the government response has been largely lacklustre. For example, the National Counter Terrorism Authority has so far appeared inert and has not been used to its true potential. Unless battlefield successes are complemented by urban counterterrorism efforts, a lasting peace in Pakistan is hard to imagine.
Published in Dawn, November 21th, 2014
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