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Sunday 30 November 2014

For some a shrine, for others a refuge

(Top) Women devotees at the shrine of Mai Sahiba. The other pictures show the entrance to the shrine and children walking through the courtyard. — Photos by the writer
(Top) Women devotees at the shrine of Mai Sahiba. The other pictures show the entrance to the shrine and children walking through the courtyard. — Photos by the writer
Thousands of Sufi shrines, big and small, dot the landscape in rural Pakistan. Each shrine has its own history and associated legends. But the shrine that stands against the dusty green hillocks in Dhoke Sahi Village is unique, both in terms of its past and present.
Here, much as with other shrines, the day of the urs – the saint’s death anniversary – resembles a carnival. Triangular buntings in red, yellow and green hang at the entrance along sparkling streamers and strings of colourful bulbs.
Steam rises from potbellied cauldrons filled with rice placed over burning logs and devotional speeches blare from the loudspeakers.
Like other shrines, thousands of devotees have come to celebrate the saint’s union with his beloved God. But what is unusual is that the saint, for whom these devotees have gathered, is a woman.
The shrine, near the town of Dina, is dedicated solely to Mai Noorun Nisa Begum, whose name literally means ‘a light among women’. The shrine of the woman – called ‘Mai Sahiba’ by her devotees – is managed by a staff of women, who live on the premises. The complex, which is the centre of cultural and religious life in Dhok Sahi and neighbouring villages, includes two burial chambers: one for Mai Sahiba and another that is the final resting place of two of her disciples.
A courtyard for women and residential rooms adjoin another courtyard and lodging rooms reserved for men. In the larger outer courtyard, two peacocks strut about in a large birdcage. A nearby kennel houses two Russian dogs, who also live on the premises. This reflects Mai Sahiba’s love for all creatures of the animal kingdom, as dogs are usually not allowed anywhere near a religious site in Islam.
The shrine fulfils social and religious functions for the women of the area. Each day, dozens of women bring their worries to the shrine. Some find relief weeping at Mai Sahiba’s feet; others find hope in the vows they make here and yet more lighten their load by sharing light moments with other visitors.
(Top) Women devotees at the shrine of Mai Sahiba. The other pictures show the entrance to the shrine and children walking through the courtyard. — Photos by the writer
(Top) Women devotees at the shrine of Mai Sahiba. The other pictures show the entrance to the shrine and children walking through the courtyard. — Photos by the writer
This mausoleum is called home by women abandoned by their families. These women have dedicated their days to the service of Mai Sahiba. The older caretakers at the shrine guide women in both spiritual and worldly matters. On most days, women share their family troubles and receive prayers nd blessings from Mai Hameeda and Mai Rashida, the caretakers.
This shrine, like others, receives millions of rupees in donations each year, which are spent on its upkeep and to finance the langar that feeds visitors. “Once, we received a letter and a donation of a few hundred thousand rupees from India. A Hindu man who had been her devotee before partition left the money with his son and asked to have it sent here for a well to be dug. Since we already had a well and an electric motor with it, we used it to install a biogas plant,” said Rashida.
While Sufism has traditionally offered more space for women than the madressah and the mosque combined, today this space is shrinking. Many Sufi shrines in Pakistan do not allow women to enter the burial chamber and women’s participation in rituals such as dhamaal and the practice of making vows to deceased saints is generally seen as a decline in Sufi practice. Taliban have attacked shrines such as that of Rahman Baba near Peshawar, specifically because it was frequented by women.
Similarly, while women are remembered as disciples of notable sufi saints, caretakers of shrines and seen as participants of rituals and pilgrims to shrines, few women have occupied positions of authority as saints themselves. Bibi Pak Daman in Lahore is another well-known shrine to a woman saint.
Kelly Pemberton, professor of religion at George Washington University, has written extensively about women in Sufism. “As relatives of particular saints they (women) may be buried in the same shrine complex, but few will have shrines erected solely in their honour,” she says.
“Mai Sahiba was not born into a traditional pir family. It was a landowning Awaan family of this village whose men served in the British army. However, she had Sufi inclinations from a very young age. As a teenager, she left home for a cave in the hills where she would perform chilla (meditation),” said Rahman, an old man at the shrine.
“Later, she made contact with pirs of the Chistiya-Qadria order and travelled to shrines in different parts of Pakistan but in the beginning it was all on her own. She didn’t know how to read or write but produced hundreds of pages of poetry, now compiled in a book. That is one of her miracles,” he added.
(Top) Women devotees at the shrine of Mai Sahiba. The other pictures show the entrance to the shrine and children walking through the courtyard. — Photos by the writer
(Top) Women devotees at the shrine of Mai Sahiba. The other pictures show the entrance to the shrine and children walking through the courtyard. — Photos by the writer
According to him, Mai Sahiba occupied a special position in the village not available to other women. She was engaged to her cousin as a young girl however she made her family promise that after she married, she will not have to stay at her husband’s house. Because she was a majzub woman – one whose life had been dedicated to god –, her request was honoured. Her brother also facilitated her in visiting shrines and other sufis, all over Pakistan, often accompanying her himself.
“She asked her brother to build her rooms next to the village graveyard. She lived there and would perform long chillas (meditation). In the beginning, she had a grave dug in one of the rooms and meditated inside it. This kind of meditation is symbolic of rejection of the world. On the direction of her pir, she stopped this practice. Perhaps that maqaam (stage) in the Sufi path was complete,” he said.
“Her devotion to God made her attract devotees and she was joined by a couple of other Majzub women. The shrine stands at the same spot where they had lived,” he added.
The Sufi path involves going through specific stages under the guidance of a spiritual master. Mai Sahiba went through these stages over a course of many years under the guidance of Hazrat Babu Ghulam Sarwar in Lahore and eventually returned to the village to give religious education to people in the village. She also used her position as a figure of religious authority to help women with domestic issues.
“It was usual for her to call a woman’s husband and lecture him on mistreating his wife. No one dared to disobey Mai Sahiba,” said Rahman.
Today, Mai Noorun Nisa’s devotees live all over Pakistan and widespread immigration from the Potohar region to England, Norway, Denmark and other parts of the world has taken her story abroad.
Her poetry is compiled in a thick volume. Hundreds of copies of this volume were printed, bound in a hard-cover with gold lettering and delivered to the shrine on a truck by a devotee who refused to identify himself. When asked by the caretakers what they could give him in return, he smiled and said “I have received the return many fold from Mai Sahiba”.
The life and the legacy Mai Sahiba has left behind is an example of often ignored social functions that shrines in Pakistan perform. It is also an unusual example of a woman occupying an autonomous position of religious authority in a society where this position is reserved solely for men.
“I am not a follower of Sufism or someone who visits shrines but whenever I was going on the Mangla road I would see the board guiding to Mai Sahiba’s shrine and I would think in this patriarchal society, if a woman has been able to occupy such a position she must have been someone truly great,” said Subedar Farooq Khan, a resident of Peshawar, visiting the shrine.
Published in Dawn, November 30th , 2014

Imran's Plan C: Paralyse major cities, paralyse Pakistan



**ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan threw down yet another gauntlet for the PML-N led government on Sunday, announcing the party's plan to paralyse major cities – and eventually "shut down" the entire country by December 16.
Addressing a crowd of thousands assembled at D-Chowk, Imran said: "On Thursday (December 4), I will go to Lahore and shut it down. On December 8 I will shut down Faisalabad; on December 12 I will go to Karachi and shut it down. By December 16 I will close down all of Pakistan."
"I know people of Lahore are ready... I know all of Faisalabad is ready... and Karachi I know they are waiting for me," he said, adding "Plan D will be revealed on Thursday.
"I am not saying all this to become the prime minister — which prime minister has ever been given the kind of respect that you all give me? I want to thank you all."
He reiterated his demand for a fair probe into the 2013 election. "We still have no word on the investigation of rigging," Imran said. "We want justice. We want an investigation of 2013 elections and a result within 4 to 6 weeks under supervision of the Supreme Court. "
"The ball is in your court, Nawaz Sharif — do your talks, do your investigations and solve the issue. We will close Pakistan down when December 16 comes, and what I do after that you will not be able to bear that."
“It has been 109 days and Naya Pakistan is waking up every day. We can all see it,” Imran said.
Criticising the government and Pakistan Peoples Party, Imran said they colluded to rig the 2013 election.
"I will tell you today what I'm about to do in the near future so that you all can understand why we are taking this next step," he said.
Referring to the premier's criticism of Imran Khan's language towards the government earlier this week, Imran said, "People here can't eat two meals a day, and Nawaz Sharif wants to lecture me on how to use proper language?"
"I am a Pakistani who can see my country going down, you [Nawaz] and Zardari both in the 2013 election fixed the match. Zardari says there was rigging in Punjab; Nawaz says [there was] rigging in Sindh, Fazlur Rehman also says there was rigging... Balochistan parties say there was rigging," he said.
"I want to ask all lawyers and educated people — if all parties are saying there was rigging then why is only PTI and Imran Khan asking for an investigation this rigging?"
“Mian sahib, if a country progresses just based on new roads, then make Malik Riaz the prime minister — a country progresses when money is spent on the citizens for their betterment,” he said, referring to the prime minister’s announcement earlier this week of the government’s plans for improved infrastuructue and roads across the country.

Shah Mehmood Qureshi speaks to the crowd

Addressing the gathering, PTI Vice-President Shah Mehmood Qureshi said that the time for speeches is over.
“Today we will not make decisions – you will make all the decisions. Do you have the courage to implement Imran Khan’s next big plan?” he asked.
“Should we quietly go home? If you don’t want to go back make a decision – are you ready for the next step?”

A mammoth crowd

A police official said that nearly 100,000 people have gathered at Parade Avenue. Supporters have been pouring into the capital from all over the country to attend the PTI rally today, making it one of the largest turn-outs in Islamabad since the start of the sit-in in August.
25-year-old Mohsin Jam from Rahim Yar Khan said he reached Islamabad three days ahead of the rally day and spent his nights at camps in D-chowk.
“I have completed my BSc but have no job for the last four years,” he said. “If Imran Khan can sit here for our rights for the last 100 days then I think it is our duty to participate in this public gathering.”
Participants at the rally say Parade Avenue is full of PTI workers sitting atop containers set up by the government. Nearly 80 per cent of the crowd is between 18 to 40 year olds.
Sheikh Rasheed takes the podium
Chief of Awami Muslim league Sheikh Rasheed on Sunday spoke ahead of the PTI Chairman, and reiterated the anti-government protesters’ demand that the government must go.
“When the time comes, Nawaz falls to his knees… when the time is up, he goes to Havelian,” Rasheed says, referring to the premier’s recent visit to Abbottabad where he lambasted the PTI.
“Imran Khan will finish the governance of tyranny,” Rasheed said, adding that if cases can be registered against a former army chief and prime minister, then there is basis to register a case against Nawaz Sharif for “changing the votes of the people”.
“I wanted to make a long speech but I am aware that every household is awaiting Imran’s speech,” Rasheed said.
Rasheed condemned the killing JUI-F leader Khalid Soomro, however, he added that JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman's attitude has ruined his party's politics.

Earlier today...


Security beefed up in capital

Radio Pakistan reports that the government has deployed thousands of security personnel for the PTI rally.
The report says that the government has deployed 15,000 security personnel to ensure security of the PTI public meeting and Red Zone in Islamabad.
According to spokesman of the Interior Ministry, the security forces including FC, Rangers and police, have been put in place in four cordons. Special security arrangements have also been made for the public and private buildings in the area. The spokesman said containers have not been placed in the city, except the venue of the public meeting.

Zardari hits out at Imran Khan

Former Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairman Asif Ali Zardari, while speaking to party workers at Bilawal House on foundation day on Sunday, said, “The ‘captain’ should go ahead and bowl; we are in no rush, when the pitch is fixed we will drop the wickets as well.”
Referring to military ruler General Ayub Khan’s famed speech in 1965, Zardari warned against the emergence of “yet another leader who begins a speech with ‘mere azeez hum watano’."
He added that the “conspiracy” being hatched over the last four months will not derail democracy.

Hamza Ali Abbasi speaks out

Actor and PTI supporter Hamza Ali Abbasi was at the venue today, lauding PTI Chairman Imran Khan's "flexibility" in negotiations with the government.
Talking about the "rigged elections", Hamza said, "unfortunately, Khan has to take steps that stops the government's work."

Quiz: How well do you know Imran Khan?

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Inside the protest

 Activists gather during the anti-government rally in front of the Parliament in Islamabad - AFP Photo
Activists gather during the anti-government rally in front of the Parliament in Islamabad - AFP Photo
 Islamabad police personnel gather during PTI's rally
Islamabad police personnel gather during PTI's rally
 The PTI stage, early in the day
The PTI stage, early in the day
Protesters arriving from far and wide faced some difficulty in reaching the venue due to the ongoing Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) countrywide strike, and some reported resistance by security forces. However, DawnNews reported that the capital's roads were by-and-large open and accessible. Islamabad police and FC personnel have been stationed near the Parliament house for security purposes, keeping in mind the incidents that occurred during PTI's rally in August.
  Imran Khan reaches the stage, late afternoon
Imran Khan reaches the stage, late afternoon
The PTI rally today is seen as a critical next-step for the party, which has lost political mileage and steam since the massive anti-government movement was launched in August.
Imran during a rally on Saturday, told his supporters that 'Plan C' would be announced at the November 30 rally, which would make it difficult for the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) government to continue.
Delivering his speech from atop his container on D-Chowk, Khan said:
  • ‘Plan A’ was the sit-in outside parliament
  • 'Plan B’ was the series of countrywide rallies
  • 'Plan C' would be presented on November 30
Speaking on a private TV channel, Imran also said a 'Plan D' was in place. The PTI Chairman hinted that 'Plan D' would hurt the federal government. At the same time, Imran said, "We are ready for talks with the government".
He also said that protests would not end until the Supreme Court's investigation into election rigging reaches a conclusion.
 People gather at the protest site, late afternoon
People gather at the protest site, late afternoon

PTI supporters egged in Gujranwala

Unidentified young men threw eggs and tomatoes at Gujranwala PTI supporters who are en route to the capital for Imran Khan’s rally.
Infuriated party workers said two young men lobbed eggs and tomatoes at their cars and motorbikes as a convoy was headed to Islamabad. The PTI workers added that the two young men had fled the scene and that a search is underway.

Nov 30: Game-changer or deadline-changer?

Imran Khan addresses supporters outside the parliament in Islamabad.—AFP/file
Imran Khan addresses supporters outside the parliament in Islamabad.—AFP/file
PTI are the Kardashians of Pakistani politics; love them or hate them, they are news makers.
You just can’t ignore them. No matter how out of touch, narcissistic and offensive they become, the party has been able to pump adrenaline into the awaam like nobody has since the famous Bhutto jalsas. The November 30 rally will likely be one more in a long line of proofs of that.
But even as I wish Insafians all luck for the big day ahead, allow me to express my concerns for the jalsa.

The misguided missile that is Imran Khan

It is no secret that 'Kaptaan Khan', who sees things purely in black and white, has often ended up putting his party in awkward positions.
He tends to perch himself at the highest point, from where anything lower is bound to be perceived as failure.
The recent dharnas are a classic example of that.
The government offered PTI an investigation commission under the Supreme Court for the election probe, but Khan did not take the deal; he stood firmly on the resignation of the Premier, and today after witnessing the diminishing of the PTI's political capital, his party has given the go-ahead for that which was offered by the treasury when the PTI had an upper hand.
As a sympathiser (not to be read as 'supporter'), I am afraid that the Mighty Khan, following in his own tradition, might follow all the hullabaloo around November 30 with another ludicrous ultimatum.
He's highly likely to do that, and if it happens, it will turn into another source of embarrassment for the party (we all know the fate of the 'civil disobedience' call).

Pave the way for a face saving deal

For the premier, it seems to be all but back to normal.
The PTI which once posed a threat to the Nawaz family government is now merely a nuisance, and Imran Khan is well aware of that status.
Where, at one end, Mian Sahab is seen smiling broadly while inaugurating the Hazara Motorway, on the other end, the Kaptaan sticks with his boorish Oye politics. Even PTI supporters don’t tune in for his daily political lecturing after the main news bulletin, mainly because there is nothing new in it.
It’s highly unlikely to come from the Khan camp, but it would be utter genius of him to show a little flexibility by giving the government some room to negotiate a win-win deal; a face-saver for PTI and a 'good riddance' for the government.
Plans fail, there is no shame or surprise in that. But sticking to a plan even after knowing it has failed is nothing but self-defeating. The party is desperately in need of a fresh approach; I hope they exhibit it in the jalsa.

Opening up too many fronts

Imran kicked off his unending protests by bashing the prime minister and his party (which was expected).
He then turned on a media owner; then lambasted certain media anchors; then Asma Jahangir — this bullying approach is more detrimental to PTI's image than he seems to realise.
PTI is steadily isolating itself from institutions and important players thanks to its unvarying criticism of all things under the sun.
The party does not seem to understand that the answer to Pakistan's current challenges lies not in spewing harsh rhetoric, but rather in shaping policies in a manner which forces the government to get their act together.
In fact, one of the reasons the PML-N still stands strong is the support it gets from all those who have banded together after being attacked by Khan.

And thus...

Given the state of things, the November 30 jalsa is not a game-changer; it is merely an attempt for the PTI to reaffirm its strong presence in the capital.
In all probability, the party will successfully accomplish that through charged speeches mixed with DJ Butt beats, but the real question for the Zaman Park-based policymakers remains:
With their current eccentric and whimsical policies – most based on one man's rhetoric – how long can the party sustain its popularity?

Born to die

Born to die

Updated about an hour ago
Babies often have to share an incubator at Sargodha’s DHQ Hospital.—Photo by writer
Babies often have to share an incubator at Sargodha’s DHQ Hospital.—Photo by writer
The room is comfortably warm — a welcome change from the cold outside. The heat is generated by electronic heaters installed over tiny beds, occupied by 11 infants, only a few days old. But the warmth is a chilling contrast to the fact that not one of them is stirring. They are only just alive, their chests rising and falling in faint rhythmic intervals. Most have few chances of survival.
Except for one woman, no other mother can be seen in the ward. A baby marked ‘Sana’ lies on her back, dangerously still. Her head is turned on one side, and like the other babies she has a thin tube of oxygen inserted into her nose.
“She was born at seven months,” explains the ward’s staff. “She was born with bronchopneumonia. In fact, all these babies have a serious illness.”
The case of the eight babies who died overnight at Sargodha’s DHQ Hospital has been shocking. The Punjab government termed it ‘criminal negligence’. Meanwhile, the death toll has been rising. Till Tuesday morning at least 21 babies had died.
Doctors there openly admit this figure is nothing — babies die all year round. “Out of the 15 babies we admit everyday about four die,” says Dr Sikandar Hayat Warraich, vice president the PMA Punjab and PMA Sargodha’s president.
He says on that particular night, there were 45 babies with only one nurse and no ward boys. There are only five incubators and although the oxygen supply system works, it was not enough. “The nurse had to give one baby some oxygen, then take it away to give to another,” says a local journalist, an eyewitness that night.
It is not that the babies were uncared for, says Dr Warraich. But doctors can only do so much. “Despite spending millions on a new DHQ building, the government has not made any sort of system for it to be used,” he says. “The new building does not have oxygen supply lines. In the old building we have a serious lack of machinery, facilities and staff. We have several doctors but there are hardly any nurses and ward boys. There is a dearth of beds, so infants often have to share beds. I would say it is the doctors who have kept this hospital in working condition.”
True enough, the new DHQ, although huge and spotless, is also almost empty.
The children’s ICU in the old DHQ building is shabby and time-worn. Right opposite it is the paediatric ward where sick newborns are admitted.
While DHQ does not deliver babies, it has an affiliated gynaecological wing next door, the Maula Bux Hospital, whose assistant medical superintendent Dr Adeeba Samar reveals that the childbirth situation in and around the district is grim.
“Often we end up seeing women from other districts who come randomly or when their situation is dire,” she says. “We refer premature or sick infants to DHQ, though none of the babies deceased that night came through us,” she says.
According to the Family Planning Association of Pakistan, 225,450 infant deaths happen yearly, ie 618 newborns die every day. As of 2012-13, the infant mortality rate is 74pc per 1,000 children. So claims by doctors that four babies die in DHQ daily may be correct.
“This is a teaching hospital which caters to Khushab, Bhakkar, D.I. Khan, Jhang, Mandi Bahauddin, and Mianwali, besides some small villages on the outskirts of Sargodha itself,” says Dr Warraich. “Women travel from these districts only in serious situations due to long distances. Sometimes the infants have already been delivered by local midwives or dais and are either premature or have not received proper antenatal care.”
Diseases including anaemia and birth asphyxiation (not crying after birth) may leave the baby with a high chance of either disability or death.
Antenatal care coverage is an MDG indicator of access and usage of healthcare during pregnancy. The antenatal period gives pregnant women a chance to improve their own health and their babies’. WHO recommends receiving antenatal care at least four times but most women do not even receive it once.
“WHO has also indicated that there should be three nurses at a time in the ward,” says Dr Warraich. “But for some reason the government is not hiring any. Nor have they sent any incubators since the incident except one, that too from a rural health centre which will suffer without it.”
Ikhlaq Ali Khan, Punjab health department’s information officer, says: “The health department should take serious note of the issue. I understand that the new building is still not being used and though we cannot give a time frame, we are slowly working to make it functional.”
“Even if we provide 20 incubators, where will the 21st child be put? We will always be in need of more. As for fatalities, if records from the Children’s Hospital in Lahore or any other hospital are taken out it will become obvious how common these deaths are all year round.”
He blames private hospitals for not having nurseries and other facilities to retain their newborns; instead they refer them to state hospitals. “Doctors in state hospitals cannot refuse admissions,” he says.
Published in Dawn, November 30th , 2014

Oil seen entering new era as Opec won’t yield to US shale

This file picture dated August 21, 2013 shows an oil well near Tioga, North Dakota. -AFP /file
This file picture dated August 21, 2013 shows an oil well near Tioga, North Dakota. -AFP /file
TEHRAN: The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Coun­tries (Opec) decision to cede no ground to rival producers underscored the price war in the crude market and the challenge to US shale drillers.
The 12-nation Opec kept its output target unchanged even after the steepest slump in oil prices since the global recession, prompting speculation it has abandoned its role as a swing producer. Thursday’s decision in Vienna propelled futures to the lowest since 2010, a level that means some shale projects may lose money.
“We are entering a new era for oil prices, where the market itself will manage supply, no longer Saudi Arabia and Opec,” said Mike Wittner, the head of oil research at Societe Generale in New York. “It’s huge. This is a signal that they’re throwing in the towel. The markets have changed for many years to come.”
The fracking boom has driven US output to the highest in three decades, contributing to a global surplus that Venezuela Thursday estimated at 2 million barrels a day, more than the production of five Opec members.
Demand for the group’s crude will fall every year until 2017 as US supply expands, eroding its share of the global market to the lowest in more than a quarter century, according to the group’s own estimates.
“We will produce 30m barrels a day for the next 6 months, and we will watch to see how the market behaves,” Opec Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri told reporters in Vienna after the meeting. “We are not sending any signals to anybody, we just try to have a fair price.”
Opec pumped 30.97m barrels a day in October and has exceeded its current output ceiling in all but four of the 34 months since it was implemented, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Opec’s own analysts estimate production was 30.25m last month, according to a report Nov. 12. Members will abide by the 30m barrel-a-day target, El-Badri said on Thursday.
“Opec has chosen to abdicate its role as a swing producer, leaving it to the market to decide what the oil price should be,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets at BNP Paribas SA in London, said Thursday by phone. “It wouldn’t be surprising if Brent starts testing $70.”
Conventional oil producers in Opec can no longer dictate prices, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said in an interview in Vienna on Nov. 26. Newcomers to the market who have the highest costs and created the glut should be the ones to determine the price, he said.
“That is what Opec is hoping for,” Carsten Fritsch, a commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in an e- mail. “It’s the question of who will blink first.”
Since the early 2000s, surging demand growth drove up prices allowing companies to apply new extraction techniques and develop deep-water and other costly oil. That ended an era that pervaded since the mid 1980s, which was characterised by low prices and Opec regaining the market share that it had previously sacrificed in an attempt to preserve high prices, Lee said.
Opec will face pressure too, with prices now below the level needed by nine member states to balance their budgets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“They haven’t taken collective action,” Richard Mallinson, an oil analyst at London-based Energy Aspects Ltd., said by phone. “That doesn’t mean they won’t do it in the next few months if prices stay low.”
US oil production has risen to 9.077m barrels a day, the highest level in weekly data from the Energy Information Administra­tion going back to 1983. Output will climb to 9.4m next year, the most since 1972, it forecasts.
Middle Eastern exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq can break even at about $30 a barrel, while some US producers need more than $80, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said in a report last month.
“In 2016, when Opec completes this objective of cleaning up the American marginal market, the oil price will start growing again,” said Fedun. “The shale boom is on a par with the dot-com boom. The strong players will remain, the weak ones will vanish.”
Igor Sechin, the chief executive officer of OAO Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, said after a meeting with Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Mexico that his nation wouldn’t need to cut output even if prices fell below $60.
“The question is, what price level will be low enough to slow US production growth?” Torbjoern Kjus, an analyst at DNB ASA, Norway’s biggest bank, said by phone. “What price will get US growth to slow to 500,000 barrels a day from this year’s rate of 1.4m barrels?”
Opec has gone “cold turkey” on balancing the oil market, Gold­man Sachs said in a report Thurs­day. Prices may have further to fall until there is evidence of US production slowing, according to the bank. It said last month that oil markets were entering a “new oil order,” with Opec retrea­ting from its role as a swing producer.
By arrangement with Washington Post-Bloomberg News Service
Published in Dawn, November 30th, 2014

Defence expo begins tomorrow

An exhibitor puts up a poster for shotguns during final preparations on the exhibition floor for the International Defence Exhibition and seminar (IDEAS) in Karachi on November 29, 2014. - AFP
An exhibitor puts up a poster for shotguns during final preparations on the exhibition floor for the International Defence Exhibition and seminar (IDEAS) in Karachi on November 29, 2014. - AFP
KARACHI: The 8th biennial International Defence E­xhib­ition and Seminar (IDEAS 2014) is beginning at the Karachi Expo Centre on Dec 1, and 88 delegations from 47 countries are set to take part in it.
In a sign of growing ties between Islamabad and Moscow, Russia will make its first appearance in the four-day exhibition which is expected to attract senior officials from different countries, exhibitors and local and foreign visitors.
An important aspect of the IDEAS 2014 will be an international defence seminar to be held on Monday evening.
Several high-level meetings between foreign delegates, key government officials, and participants of the exhibition have been planned on the sidelines of the exhibition for forging alliances in defence production.
The Director Media, Defence Export Promotion Organisation (Depo), Ministry of Defence Production, Commodore Tahir Javed, briefed journalists about the exhibition on Saturday.
“We have received overwhelming response from exhibitors and delegations from across the globe as out of 88 delegations around 47 are headed either by defence ministers, joint chiefs, services chiefs or defence secretaries of their countries. In addition to this, 333 firms will exhibit their products of which 256 are foreign and 77 Pakistani,” Commodore Javed said.
Published in Dawn, November 30th , 2014